An opinion editorial appeared in the Sept. 19 issue of The Daily Targum, titled "Stop Global Whining," by Joshua Tasker, the opinions editor. As climate scientists here at Rutgers, we are disappointed to see an editorial on this important topic that is riddled with innaccuracies and misstatements. Most of the "facts" cited by Mr. Tasker come from Web sites by climate-change contrarians. These statements are perpetuated because climate change provokes strong opinions, not all of which are supported by facts.
The editor cites the recently published report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a culmination of decades of research by thousands of scientists worldwide and written by nearly 4000 scientists from 130 countries, several here at Rutgers. This exhaustive report finds that, "Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic [human-generated] greenhouse gas concentrations." This statement is supported with dozens of figures, tables and calculations produced by the world's most renowned climate scientists. The work cited by IPCC reports is subject to peer review, which means that their methods and conclusions have been examined by independent experts before being accepted for publication. Talking points on a Web site do not require peer review.
Let's summarize some of the facts of climate change. The Earth's temperature does indeed fluctuate in response to external factors such as changes in solar output and the Earth's orbit, natural events (such as volcanic eruptions) and internal processes within the climate system. Greenhouse gases occur naturally in the atmosphere - water vapor being the most important of these - and without them the Earth would be extremely cold and uninhabitable. Through our extensive burning of fossil fuels and other human activities during the past century, we have increased carbon dioxide - another important greenhouse gas - by about 35 percent. During the 10,000 years before that, CO2 varied by about 5 percent. Greenhouse gases act like a blanket on the Earth, thus if that blanket thickens, the Earth warms. More water vapor can then exist in the warmer atmosphere, thereby exacerbating the anthropogenic warming caused by increased CO2. Yes, the climate did experience warm periods in the distant past, but they are known to be caused by natural forces. A large fraction of the warming in recent decades, however, is human-induced and it's happening at an alarming - perhaps even unprecedented - rate.
Headlines have reported the stunning record loss of Arctic sea ice this summer, following several summers with unprecedented losses. The last time the Arctic was this warm was about 125,000 years ago when sea levels were about 16 feet higher than today owing primarily to melting of Arctic land ice. Most mountain glaciers worldwide are now thinning and retreating, and more surface area on Greenland is melting than ever before recorded. Many of the world's 6.5 billion people live close to the ocean and will be vulnerable to sea level rise. Many more will be affected by changes in extreme weather. There is evidence that such changes are already occurring, and they are expected to continue.
Many research groups around the world have developed sophisticated computer models to simulate the Earth's climate system. While they cannot represent every nuance of the real climate system, they capture very well the climate's past behavior based on known conditions (greenhouse gas concentrations, volcanic eruptions, solar cycles, etc.). For the IPCC report, the best models were run with and without the anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases, the results of which demonstrate that it is "extremely unlikely that global climate change of the past 50 years can be explained without external forcing," that is, without the human-induced changes to the system. Through the Climate and Environmental Change Initiative at Rutgers, researchers across the university are studying how global change will be felt in our region and how it will affect society here in New Jersey.
The overwhelming majority of the scientific community and world leaders acknowledge that recent global warming is largely human-induced and that it represents a serious threat to vulnerable human communities, ecosystems and national security. The real areas of debate are over how to best respond to the problem. There is no single solution, but rather it will take a broad spectrum of measures to promote cleaner and more efficient energy production and usage, new incentives for individuals and businesses to conserve energy, and leaders whose opinions and actions are founded on science.
Jennifer Francis, Tony Broccoli, Kristy Dahl, David Robinson, and Alan Robock are all members of the Rutgers Climate and Environmental Change Initiative.
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