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SURIANO: Republicans cannot surrender suburbs

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With the midterm elections in the books and the results mostly contended, except for Florida, we can look into the outcomes and try to draw some conclusions. The Senate was mostly successful for the GOP. The only other thing to note from the Senate's side is the election of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) to the United States Senate from Utah. His voice can be very helpful to the GOP and the nation as a whole, as I wrote about last year.

This column, alas, is not about the Republicans' relative successes in the Senate. It is instead about the failures in the election for the House and the dread that fills me when I look further into the results. The Democrats had a net gain of a little more than 30 seats, which is approximately on par with the historical results of midterm elections in a president’s first term. The part of the results that worry me about the future of the GOP is where the Republicans lost seats. The seats lost belonged mostly to suburban moderate Republicans. This swing among suburbanites and women may, if they hold in the future, be disastrous for Republicans.  

Let us look into the New Jersey house results as an example of this nationwide swing. The Republican House Delegation lost 4 out of 5 Republican congressmen from New Jersey. There were three Republican seats that the GOP thought they could keep in New Jersey, though Republican Congressman Chris Smith’s seat was safe. The lost seats were those of Congressmen Leonard Lance and Tom MacArthur, along with Assemblyman Jay Webber, who was not an incumbent but was seeking to replace longtime Republican Congressman Rodney Frelinghuysen. All three of these candidates lost, and only Macarthur’s race was very close. These districts were Republican districts that all suddenly swung to the Democratic side. Why did this happen? Some of it was money. The Democratic candidates were well-funded, but it was really because of President Donald J. Trump.  

To be fair to Trump, he helped the Republicans on the Senate side drive up the votes in red states with Democratic Senators. But unfortunately for Republicans, he remains very unpopular among women and college-educated voters. These are two voting blocks that carry sway in the suburbs. These people are not progressive socialists. They are more moderate, and even somewhat conservative economically. It is not Trump’s policy that turns the suburbs blue, per se, but instead his style. The way he speaks, acts and tweets are the true ways in which he alienates these voters. If Trump continued with his exact policies, and refrained from picking pointless fights or saying outrageous things, he would be more popular. The Republican Party cannot permanently surrender the suburbs — they are a growing population center and have traditionally voted Republican.

While the Republican Party and Trump bring new working-class voters to the GOP, it cannot just interchange one group for the other. That is because the suburbs and cities are growing, and the white working-class is shrinking as a share of the electorate. The Republicans must endeavor to keep the voters brought in by Trump without alienating the suburban voters. I do not know whether Trump can or wants to do this, considering he received his presidential position by being unabashedly himself, so I am doubtful he would change that now. That being said, when the next Republican candidate for president comes along, they should not try to rip off Trump's style. Trump burst onto the scene as a one-of-a-kind candidate. Everyone in the country knew him and did not expect him to be the clean-cut politician type. 

Other politicians do not have this advantage, and would pay a steep price for trying to copy it. They would lose women and suburban voters, and most likely would not see the same success among the working class. So, what should future Republican candidates for president or Congress do? Stick to your core beliefs of small government and low taxes. But, pay attention to the white working-class. That is something the president did that many others in politics did not. To reach these voters, you do not have to throw insults around and scream “Fake news!” You must simply listen to this section of voters without acting in such a way that turns off the suburbs. This, of course, is very easy for me to say writing a column, but I do hope the Republicans make an effort to save the suburbs.

Robert Suriano is a School of Arts and Sciences sophomore majoring in history. His column, "A RINO's View," runs on alternate Mondays.


*Columns, cartoons and letters do not necessarily reflect the views of the Targum Publishing Company or its staff.

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