The swing vote rears its head in any election. It adds flavor to vote predictions that would otherwise be fairly unsurprising, especially considering the electoral process in the United States.
In this presidential election, the impact of the Hispanic and Latino community has been a hot topic in the polls from before the beginning of 2008. Candidates have made it a strategic concern to lock the community’s support, which comprises currently 15 percent of the current population and still growing, according to statistics released in May 2008 by the U.S. Census Bureau.
“If you look at an electoral map, you’ll find that it is nearly impossible to win the presidency without winning most of [the states with large Hispanic populations like Florida, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada],” said David Brancaccio, journalist and author.
Although the Hispanic community has historically sided with the Democrats, President George W. Bush reined in a huge Hispanic vote in 2004, totaling close to 40 percent, according to a Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the election exit polls. Four years later, it has been important for the Republicans to maintain the Hispanic swing Bush secured, according to an article by USAElectionPolls.com.
But this is not what national polls are saying. Currently, Obama is leading the Hispanic vote by 50 percent as opposed to McCain’s 43 percent in Nevada, according to analysis by the William C. Velasquez Institute. A similar lead shows in Florida, New Mexico and Colorado, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.
“[Obama] is sending bilingual canvassers into the community, not so much in New Brunswick as across the nation,” said an anonymous New Brunswick resident, who wished to maintain the right to a confidential vote. “McCain is too focused on his own foreign policy experience and doesn’t speak enough to the issues that matter to my family.”
Obama did not always hold a lead in the Hispanic polls. During primary season, polls showed that McCain was slightly in front of the Democratic nominee, but not the frontrunner.
In a poll conducted by Edison/Mitofsky, Clinton proved to dominate Obama in three out of the four swing states. In Nevada, she won 64 percent over 26; Florida voted 59 percent to Obama’s 30; and New Mexico showed its Clinton preference in 56 percent to 36.
“The states I’ve won total 300 electoral votes. If we had the same rules as the Republicans, I would be the nominee right now. We have different rules, so what we’ve got to figure out is who can win 270 electoral votes. My opponent has won states totaling 217 electoral votes,” Clinton said when discussing the primary’s results.
So why didn’t Clinton get the nomination? Several pundits said they agreed that her campaign was heavily flawed and Mr. Clinton made wild remarks that essentially ruined her promotion.
To some, Clinton was the ideal choice for Hispanic and Latino voters.
“Between Obama and Hillary, Hillary is the right choice. The Clintons have proven themselves and she let out a series of ads addressing the Latino community specifically. But [Obama] is now the obvious choice when the other option is conservative and less sensitive [to the Hispanic community],” the source said.
Because of his shortcomings in the primaries, Obama had to reach the national Hispanic community in new ways.
“We’ve been working hard in doing surrogacy work in [heavily Latino areas] as well as on national television. A lot of that [work] is focused at the Hispanic community. We’re happy to see [Obama] is actually doing extremely well with the Latino communities in the latest set of polls,” said New Jersey Senator Robert Menendez.
Menendez, whose parents are Cuban, is one of the few Hispanics currently serving in the United States senate.
In the last few days before an election that started nearly two years ago, Obama campaign spokesman Federico de Jesus said the candidate is still trying to reach the minority vote no matter their location.
“In the home stretch, as things get tighter in places like Indiana, the Hispanic community will play a key role and could actually tip the election if the race is decided by a couple of percentage points. While they don’t have the large percentage like Nevada or Colorado, they could help tip the results in our favor,” de Jesus said.
Candidates push for Hispanic, Latino vote
Published: Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Updated: Wednesday, October 29, 2008
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