A double-digit unemployment rate may be around the corner for the United States as mass layoffs continue while job openings decrease.
The School of Management and Labor Relations recently released their latest findings Monday on the state of the economy and job market.
The unemployment rate increased in the past year by 3.5 points to 9.7 percent, and it is affecting minorities the worst, according to the study.
“Most economists expect [the unemployment rate] to go up for the rest of the year and start going down by January or February,” said Douglas Kruse, a University professor and main coordinator of the study. “There is lots of uncertainty about that. [The rate] could easily reach 10 percent, though most believe it will peak at 9 percent.”
The layoff rate has risen from 1.4 to 1.6 percent in the past year but the job openings dropped from 2.7 to 1.9 percent. The hiring rate dropped from 3.5 percent to 2.9 percent.
“Unemployment is the highest in 26 years, the risk of job loss has doubled since last year and unemployment has especially risen for African-Americans, Hispanics/Latinos
and people with disabilities.”
When divided up into categories, the unemployment rate has a visible difference. The rate is the highest for workers with disabilities and African-Americans, with 16.9 percent and 15.1 percent, respectively. Hispanic workers make up 13 percent.
There are more male unemployed workers with a rate of 10.9 percent than women, who have 8.2 percent, according to the study.
“But as bad as the overall employment picture is, the indicators for people who remain employed are still generally stable or positive,” he said. “Average earnings continue to rise even for nonsupervisory and production workers.”
Though, Kruse noted, the increase is less than 1 percent per year throughout the past 10 years when adjusted for inflation.
This economy is also affecting recent University graduates.
“Right now I’m holding down two part-time jobs, but I only started sending out applications a week or two ago because I spent most of the summer abroad,” University alumnus Kevin Nedza said.
Graduates are also suffering the effects of a market with very few job openings.
“It is difficult; not a lot of places are hiring, especially in New Jersey,” Nedza said. “Jobs are out there for those who want them. I have several friends who have switched careers in the past few months, and I’ve already heard back from the first job I applied to.”
The main improvement since last year is that health and safety numbers continue to improve and average wages have gone up slightly, Kruse said. Also, the percent unionized has increased slightly the past two years after a long decline, so it’s possible that workers may be gaining more voice in the workplace.
“Health and safety continue to improve, with both fatal and nonfatal occupational injuries and illness declining,” he said. “Access to benefits has been stable or rising: More than two-thirds of workers have access to health and retirement plans, and access to paid sick leave and several types of family-friendly benefits has risen over the past 10 years.”
The study involved gathering data such as employment, earnings, benefits, hours worked and worker representation from a variety of sources including the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other government agencies. The scorecard involved collecting all the data and organizing them in a consistent format for comparison for one, five and 10 years.
“I think there’s a pretty broad consensus that indicators are pointing to an end to the recession, and we managed to avoid the very real risk of a depression,” Kruse said. “The rate of monthly job loss remains high, and the recent Heldrich [Center Work Trends] survey of unemployed workers showed the tremendous economic, personal and social consequences for those who lost jobs.”
Other graduates have found employment in governmental programs.
“I am a social studies teacher working at middle school in Newark. I got it as a part of the Teach for America program,” former Rutgers University Student Assembly Chair and University alumnus Chris Keating said. “It’s the toughest job I ever did but it’s also the most rewarding.”
He said the job market is tough and that he still has a few unemployed friends, but Teach for America is a very good program although it is very competitive.
“I’m hopeful that the employment situation will be much better by next Labor Day, so that the re-employed and newly employed workers can benefit from some of the more favorable trends we see for employed people,” Kruse said.
Minorities feel unemployment brunt, job loss risk doubles
Published: Thursday, September 10, 2009
Updated: Thursday, September 10, 2009
Be the first to comment on this article!