Juniors and seniors at the University may be the main students worrying about the low number of jobs available after graduation.
But job growth in New Jersey is not expected to reach its pre-recession peak until 2016, well after most underclassmen are expected to graduate, according to an economic conference held last month.
Though comparatively shallower than the national recession, New Jersey’s economic slump is predicted to last longer than the national average, said Center for Urban Policy Research Economist Nancy Mantell at the Oct. 29 R/ECON Semiannual Subscriber Conference.
Although the economy will begin to revive in 2011, it will take until 2019, the end of the national recession’s forecast period, to fully restore, she said.
“The rate of inflation will be very slow. It won’t be until 2011 that there’s consistent job growth,” Mantell said. “Jobs won’t reach the pre-recession peak, [which was in 2007], until 2016. That’s a pretty long time.”
In 2019, the state’s employment base is expected to exceed the 2007 pre-recession job peak by 118,000 jobs, or 2.9 percent, Mantell said.
But the country’s economy is expected to begin recovering three years earlier than New Jersey, beginning in 2013; by 2019, the national employment base is expected to exceed the 2007 peak by 7.7 percent more jobs, she said.
“New Jersey is recovering more slowly than the U.S.,” Mantell said.
Students who are graduating within the next few years should expect to have a difficult time looking for jobs in the state, she said.
“They better be prepared to wait for a while,” Mantell said.
But there are a few industries that are seeing some type of job growth, such as the health care industry and social work, she said.
“The things that are still growing are health services,” Mantell said. “You should be in relatively good shape if you’re interested in nursing or social work.”
Other professions that focus on technology as well as temp jobs are also expected to grow, she said.
“Technical computer services [and] investment in technical fields [will grow],” Mantell said. “I think that is what will probably lead the state out the recession. That’s always something good to be in.”
She said technology is what the country is relying on to help them figure out ways to help the nation come out of the recession sooner.
But industries such as manufacturing and construction are not expected to see job growth any time soon, she said.
“The things that have been doing worse are manufacturing and construction,” Mantell said.
Although the finance industry was one of the main industries expected to see significant job decline when the recession first hit, it is not suffering as badly as people thought it would, she said.
“Financing has done bad in this recession … [mostly] in regards to real estate,” she said.
Mantell said either way, one of the most important industries that should see the most significant job growth is professional and business services.
“Professional and business services — that’s where the growth is going to be,” she said.
New Jersey’s recession began in January 2008, one month after it started nationally, Mantell said. Between January 2008 and July 2009, the state lost 161,300 jobs.
Since the beginning of 2009, the state lost jobs slower than the national pace — 1.8 percent compared to 2.9 percent, she said. But after gaining 700 jobs in August, 12,900 jobs were dropped right after in September, and the employment rate increased from 4.5 percent in December 2007 to 9.8 percent last September.
“In August, there was a first time [job] gain in 18 months,” Mantell said. “Unfortunately, New Jersey is losing more jobs than it’s gaining.”
While some students are worried about finding jobs after they graduate, some of the underclassmen said they feel lucky to be in school, and if they could, they would stay as long as possible until the recession is over.
School of Arts and Sciences sophomore Suzanne Innace said she would like to remain at the University a little longer because of the prolonged recession recovery in the state.
“It makes me feel like it’s a really good time to be school,” Innace said. “I did a summer program with graduate students, and they were all freaking out about getting jobs. So I feel like for students right now, it’s a good position to be in school and plan to be in school for a long time.”
Some seniors graduating next semester are worried that they will have to move out of New Jersey because of the recession.
School of Arts and Sciences senior Zachary Easley moved to New Jersey from Kansas. He said although he was not sure whether he wanted to stay in New Jersey or not, the recession is impacting his decision.
“It still affects me, because I do live here,” Easley said. “It affects me as far as my decision of where to live when I’m done.”
Easley is considering moving back to Kansas because of the high cost of living in New Jersey coupled with the extended recession period.
“The cost of living [in New Jersey] is outrageous here, and the fact that New Jersey is suffering badly, yeah, I want to get out of here,” he said. “I think that’s pertinent to anyone … proud to live here. New Jersey needs to clean up their act economically.”
Easley said it is unfortunate that he might have to leave the state next semester.
“I’ve grown to really like [New Jersey],” he said. “But primarily, it’s the financial situation I’ll base my decision on.”
Mantell said she could not say why specifically New Jersey’s recession is expected to last longer, she is sure that the country as a whole is struggling in similar ways.
“I only study New Jersey. I can’t speak for other states,” she said. “But I’m sure that the whole country [is suffering].”
New graduates face job slump until 2016
Published: Thursday, November 5, 2009
Updated: Thursday, November 5, 2009
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